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A new approach for assimilation of 2D radar precipitation in a high-resolution NWP model

机译:一种在高分辨率NWp模型中同化二维雷达降水的新方法

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摘要

A new approach for assimilation of 2D precipitation in numerical weather prediction models is presented and tested in a case with convective, heavy precipitation. In the scheme a nudging term is added to the horizontal velocity divergence tendency equation. In case of underproduction of precipitation, the strength of the nudging is proportional to the offset between observed and modelled precipitation, leading to increased moisture convergence. If the model over-predicts precipitation, the low level moisture source is reduced, and in-cloud moisture is nudged towards environmental values. The method was implemented in the Danish Meteorological Institute numerical weather prediction (DMI NWP) nowcasting system, running with hourly cycles, performing a surface analysis and 3D variational analysis for upper air assimilation at each cycle restart, followed by nudging assimilation of precipitation and then a free forecast. The precipitation fields are based on a 2D composite CAPPI (constant altitude plan position indicator) field made from observations with the DMI weather radars, and have a 10 min time resolution. The results obtained in this study indicate that the new method implies fast adjustment of the dynamical state of the model to facilitate precipitation release when the model precipitation intensity is too low. Removal of precipitation is shown to be of importance and the position of the model precipitation cells becomes skilful even at the smallest scales (∼3 km). Bias is reduced for low and extreme precipitation rates. In this meteorological case, the usage of the nudging procedure has been shown to improve the prediction of heavy precipitation substantially.
机译:提出了一种在数值天气预报模型中吸收二维降水的新方法,并在有对流,强降水的情况下进行了测试。在该方案中,将微调项添加到水平速度发散趋势方程中。在降水不足的情况下,拉结的强度与观测到的降水和模拟降水之间的偏移量成正比,从而导致水分收敛增加。如果模型高估了降水量,则减少了低水平的水分源,并且将云内水分推向了环境值。该方法在丹麦气象学院数值天气预报(DMI NWP)临近预报系统中实施,每小时运行一次,在每次循环重启时执行表面分析和3D变分分析,以获取高层空气的同化作用,然后轻推降水的同化作用,然后免费预测。降水场基于DMI天气雷达的观测结果制成的二维复合CAPPI(恒定高度计划位置指示器)场,并且具有10分钟的时间分辨率。在这项研究中获得的结果表明,该新方法意味着当模型降水强度太低时,可以快速调整模型的动力学状态以促进降水释放。降水的去除被证明是重要的,并且即使在最小尺度下(〜3 km),模型降水单元的位置也变得熟练。对于低和极高的降水率,偏差会降低。在这种气象情况下,已证明使用微动程序可以大大改善对强降水的预测。

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